End of Combustion Vehicles: What Will the Next Years Look Like?

1. What has already been decided globally – and what is still being fought over

Today there are two layers of decision happening at the same time:

• Countries and blocs that have already approved targets to phase out sales of new combustion-engine cars in certain years.

• The political back-and-forth over those targets as the economy, jobs and acceptance of EVs go up and down.

The European Union, for example, approved a rule that, starting in 2035, only allows the sale of new cars that do not emit CO₂. In practice, that means no purely gasoline or diesel engines — only battery-electric vehicles, hydrogen or some technology that results in zero tailpipe emissions.

But since 2024, several countries in the bloc have begun pushing to soften that rule, allowing hybrids or cars running on low-carbon synthetic fuels after 2035.

Other countries outside Europe have also announced phase-out targets for the sale of new combustion cars in the next decade — often between 2030 and 2040.

Key point almost no one explains:

• These targets apply to new cars, not to the car you already own.

• Even in the most aggressive countries, the combustion fleet will keep circulating for many years afterwards.

In other words: there is currently no serious plan saying that in 2035 your combustion car will automatically become “illegal”.
What we do have is growing pressure for new cars sold to be increasingly less polluting.

2. The real pace of change: EVs are still a minority, but growing at insane speed

Looking only at headlines, it sounds like “everyone only buys electric now”. That’s not quite true.

According to the International Energy Agency, sales of electric cars surpassed 17 million units in 2024, more than 25% growth compared with 2023. This pushed EVs to over 20% of global new car sales.

Translated:

• For every 5 new cars sold in the world, 1 is already electric.

• The global fleet has passed 50 million EVs on the road, and keeps growing.

Over the next 10 years, if this curve holds (and everything suggests it will, with regional differences), you should see EVs becoming the majority of new sales in several large markets — China, parts of Europe, possibly the United States.

But “majority of new sales” does not mean half of the world’s fleet will be electric. Cars last. The fleet takes decades to renew.

The most realistic scenario up to 2035 is:

• EVs dominating new-car sales in some countries,

• Hybrids gaining space in others,

• And a huge fleet of combustion cars still running at the same time, especially in emerging markets.

3. And what about Brazil in the middle of all this?

Brazil has two cards up its sleeve that change the conversation:

• Ethanol and flex-fuel – a huge installed base of engines that can already use renewable fuel.

• An official transition vision that mixes biofuels + electrification, instead of “only EVs and end of story”.

Studies on the country’s energy future project scenarios in which, by 2035, gasoline is practically replaced by ethanol in the flex-fuel fleet, using already degraded areas to grow biofuel crops.

At the same time, reports show that expanding electric mobility through 2040 would require around R$ 25 billion just for charging infrastructure, plus investments in power generation.

In practice, this suggests:

• Brazil is unlikely to ban combustion engines overnight.

• The trend is long-term coexistence between flex on ethanol, hybrids and EVs, each with different roles.

There are even controversial proposals in Congress to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel cars starting in 2030 and restrict their circulation entirely in 2040, but today that is more political debate than real consensus.

Honest summary for the next 10 years in Brazil:

• It is very unlikely that your combustion car will become “illegal”.

• It is quite likely that some cities will tighten restrictions on older, more polluting cars in specific districts or time windows, copying “low-emission zone” models already common in Europe.

4. What actually changes if you stay with combustion until 2035

Let’s leave theory and go into real life. Think of four main impacts:

4.1. Resale value and liquidity

Today, price behavior is mixed:

• In some European markets, studies show that older EVs still depreciate faster than combustion cars, because technology moves quickly and there are doubts about batteries and the used-EV market.

• In others, recent IEA data indicates that 12- to 36-month-old EVs are reselling better, matching or surpassing other powertrains in certain segments.

For your combustion car, the real risk of accelerated devaluation appears when governments start restricting circulation or taxing older, high-emission models more heavily, as already happens in European cities with low-emission zones.

Over the next 10 years, it’s reasonable to expect:

• Well-maintained combustion cars with current emission standards will keep a market, especially in countries like Brazil.

• Very thirsty, old models with poor environmental ratings will lose attractiveness first.

In other words: it’s not that “every combustion car” becomes a ticking time bomb — it’s the worst profiles that suffer first.

4.2. Fuel: will it run out? Will prices explode?

Fuel shortages are not a realistic risk on a 10-year horizon. Global demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to decline gradually, but will remain huge, especially in heavy transport, aviation and in countries with low EV penetration.

What changes is the relative role of different fuels:

• In developed countries, gasoline and diesel tend to become more expensive because of environmental taxes, not physical scarcity.

• In Brazil, ethanol gains relevance as a “cleaner” way to keep the flex-fuel fleet running while EVs gradually take their place.

Most likely scenario for the next decade:

• Fossil fuels still exist, but running many kilometers in a very thirsty combustion car becomes less and less competitive compared with EVs and efficient hybrids.

• Those who can run on ethanol in an efficient flex or move to well-engineered hybrids will have a smoother transition.

4.3. Maintenance and parts availability

Automakers don’t shut down their parts supply overnight. Even with sales-ban targets, the combustion fleet remains huge, and that generates lucrative business for decades.

What should happen:

• Common wear items (brakes, suspension, lubricants, etc.) stay easy and cheap to find, because the installed base is massive.

• Specific components for low-volume or niche engines may get more expensive over time.

• The aftermarket tends to keep supplying parts for many years, especially in countries that still use a lot of combustion.

Again, the real risk is mostly for rare, low-volume imports or models with weak after-sales support, not for popular cars.

4.4. Local regulations: where the screws really tighten

Up to 2035, the big change is not a “combustion blackout”, but the rise of

localized restrictions:

• Zones where older cars pay more to enter or are simply not allowed at certain hours.

• Preferential parking or subsidies for EV taxis, ride-hailing fleets and public vehicles.

• Tax incentives (or the removal of them) that make new combustion cars less advantageous, even if they are still allowed.

For those who mainly drive in suburbs or smaller towns, the impact tends to be much smaller.
For those who depend on dense, heavily regulated downtown areas, the pressure comes earlier.

5. What if I want to keep my combustion car for another 10 years?

If today you have:

• A relatively recent car (up to 5–7 years old), well maintained and reasonably efficient,

it’s perfectly plausible to keep it until 2035 without becoming a “traffic outcast”.

What may change is:

• How much you pay to drive it (fuel + taxes);

• How much it will still be worth on resale down the road;

• In which areas and at what times it continues to have unrestricted access.

If your car is already:

• very old, very thirsty and always on the edge of maintenance,

that’s exactly the profile policy makers are likely to target first: more tax, more circulation limits, more difficulty getting a good resale price.

So the honest question isn’t “will combustion cars end?”.
It’s: will my specific car still make economic and practical sense for me?

6. What no one tells you: the risk isn’t the engine, it’s the rigidity of your strategy

The biggest mistake many people are making is treating the debate like a football rivalry:

• “EVs are just a fad, I’ll never own one.”
  or

• “Combustion is dead, only a fool buys it.”

The next 10 years will not be 100% electric, nor 100% combustion. They will almost certainly be a hybrid decade:

• EVs growing strongly in sales,

• Hybrids serving as a bridge,

• Flex-fuel and ethanol holding the transition in countries like Brazil,

• And a huge combustion fleet still on the streets.

The risk is not owning a combustion car.
The risk is ignoring what’s changing and making decisions as if nothing were happening.

If you plan to change cars in the next 3 to 5 years, it’s worth starting to ask yourself:

• Do I drive more in the city or on highways?

• Do I have somewhere to charge an EV comfortably?

• Would a well-tuned hybrid make more sense than a brand-new pure combustion car?

• If I insist on a very thirsty model, am I prepared to pay that bill, including when I resell it?

7. So… will combustion cars actually end?

On a 10-year horizon, the honest answer is: no.

They will:

• Lose space in new-car sales,

• Be progressively pushed into niches (low-mileage drivers, collectors, specific applications),

• Pay more wherever they are more polluting and less efficient.

In 20 or 30 years, combustion cars may well become the exception rather than the rule — especially in big cities, rich countries and regions with strong electrical infrastructure.

But what matters to you right now is something else:

Your current car and your next purchase need to make sense inside a transition that is already underway, not in a static world.

If you understand that — instead of reacting out of fear or hype — you can:

• extract maximum value from the combustion car you already own,

• choose the right time to switch (to a hybrid, an EV, or even a well-bought flex running on ethanol),

• and avoid getting trapped by extreme narratives.

Combustion cars don’t “end” from one day to the next.
But the world around them has already started to change — and the next 10 years are exactly the period when ignoring that stops being a cheap option.

If you want, in the next article we can dive into the practical side:
how to build a future checklist for your current car (combustion, hybrid or EV) and figure out whether it’s better to keep it, replace it or finally take the leap into electric.